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Brussels Talks and the Logic of Trade War: Why Escalation May Be Inevitable in EU–China Relations
On June 29, 2026, European Union Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič met China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels in what officials described as a pivotal moment for the future of EU–China economic relations. The meeting unfolded against a backdrop of deepening tensions, a widening trade imbalance—estimated at around €360 billion in goods—and rising political pressure in Europe to adopt a tougher stance toward Beijing. Despite the high stakes, expectations for a breakthrough were notably low. The talks were not only about tariffs, subsidies, or trade rules—but about something much deeper: two competing models of economic and political development. A Meeting Doomed to Deliver Little The Brussels encounter was framed by…
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U.S.-China Trade Talks – A Deal in Name, Not in Nature
After a grueling period of diplomatic stalemate and escalating tariffs, the United States and China have finally sketched the outlines of a new trade agreement. The announcement of a tentative framework, set to be finalized at an upcoming Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, has momentarily halted a dangerous slide toward a full-blown economic conflict. On the surface, this is a cause for relief. But beneath the veneer of progress, a deep and warranted skepticism persists. Given President Donald Trump’s established playbook, this “deal” is less a peace treaty and more a tactical pause—one that is likely to be shattered by the next round of threats. The Key Developments: A Closer…
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The EU–USA Tariff Deal: Sectoral Setback for Europe
Overview On July 27, 2025, the European Union and the United States finalized a landmark trade agreement that capped U.S. tariffs on most EU goods at 15%, averting a previously threatened 30% escalation. In return, the EU committed to significant energy purchases and investment flows into the U.S., while removing tariffs on select American exports. While the deal stabilizes transatlantic relations and offers strategic benefits, it also introduces sector-specific challenges for the EU economy. 1. Automotive Industry: A Competitive Blow Tariff Impact: U.S. tariffs on EU automobiles remain at 15%, down from the threatened 30% but still above the pre-deal 10% Negative Effects: 2. Steel and Aluminum: A Sector Under…
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Who wins in the US-Vietnam trade deal?
On July 2, 2025, the United States and Vietnam finalized a new trade agreement involving tariffs. Under the deal, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will face a 20% tariff, while U.S. goods entering Vietnam will be exempt from tariffs. From a U.S. perspective, this appears to be a favorable outcome, particularly for former President Donald Trump, who has long emphasized trade deals that benefit American interests. Using 2024 trade figures as a reference: Combined, these changes represent a potential economic shift of $28.63 billion, which supporters of the deal may view as a significant win for the U.S. However, the broader implications are more nuanced. While the tariff exemption may seem…
