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Brussels Talks and the Logic of Trade War: Why Escalation May Be Inevitable in EU–China Relations
On June 29, 2026, European Union Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič met China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels in what officials described as a pivotal moment for the future of EU–China economic relations. The meeting unfolded against a backdrop of deepening tensions, a widening trade imbalance—estimated at around €360 billion in goods—and rising political pressure in Europe to adopt a tougher stance toward Beijing. Despite the high stakes, expectations for a breakthrough were notably low. The talks were not only about tariffs, subsidies, or trade rules—but about something much deeper: two competing models of economic and political development. A Meeting Doomed to Deliver Little The Brussels encounter was framed by…
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Germany, China, and the EU: From Deep Interdependence to Managed Strategic Friction
Germany’s relationship with China is undergoing a profound transformation. For decades, Berlin treated China primarily as an engine of opportunity: a market for German exporters, a production base for global firms, and a pillar of industrial profitability. That approach was rooted in a broader German strategic culture often summarized as “Wandel durch Handel”—the belief that trade and interdependence could moderate political differences and, over time, encourage convergence. Today, that paradigm is giving way to a much less optimistic model. Germany still seeks to preserve economic ties with China, but it is increasingly attempting to do so under the logic of de-risking: reducing strategic vulnerabilities while continuing selective engagement. This shift…
